The Bills, Lions, Dolphins, and 49ers were considered four of the NFL's top eight teams heading into last week, but all four lost, continuing a trend of surprising results in NFL pick 'em pools and survivor pools. If you've managed to somehow avoid most of the big upsets, we're here to help with your Week 8 NFL picks.
In this post, we highlight five NFL Week 8 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool. We also give an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape for Week 8. We're coming off a huge past week on the pick 'em front, with subscribers reporting winning weekly prizes at more than a 40-percent clip, so hopefully we can keep that momentum going.
Week 8 has all 32 NFL teams back in action, with several coming off bye weeks. Half of the games have a point spread of over six points, so there are lots of perceived mismatches. Of course, as we know, the NFL is full of surprises from week to week.
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Week 8 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 8 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 8 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 25, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
Carolina Panthers (vs. Houston Texans)
Point Spread:+3
Pick Popularity:18%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The winless Panthers will play at home against the Texans with both teams coming off their bye. The Panthers have struggled on offense, and their rush defense has been vulnerable, ranking near the bottom of the league in several categories. However, the Texans haven't been good at running the ball and have struggled a bit more on offense in the past two games.
The public apparently does not like picking winless teams, as the Panthers are the least popular pick among the eight Week 8 games where the spread is at a field goal or lower. With Carolina only a field-goal underdog, there's some value in picking a Panthers' upset here.
WEEK 8DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Point Spread:+1
Pick Popularity:28%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
This game is the closest Week 8 matchup according to the betting markets. However, the public is in "What have you done for me lately?" mode, siding heavily with the Vikings coming off their big prime-time Monday night win against San Francisco. The Vikings have now won three of their past four after an 0-3 start.
Green Bay has been a fairly popular pick recently, but that favor appears to have worn out after three straight losses. The fact remains that this game is projected to be very close according to the betting markets, and in these cases, when the public zigs, we zag.
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Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Chicago Bears)
Point Spread:-8
Pick Popularity:91%
Category:Reasonably priced big favorite
We normally wouldn't list an eight-point favorite among the best value plays, but Week 8 features lots of bigger favorites and the Chargers are a relatively unpopular option within that subset of teams. They have the second-highest win odds according to the betting markets, but they are only the seventh-most popular pick this week.
While only nine percent of the public is picking the outright upset, that’s still much higher than other similar games. The other five teams favored by between 8-8.5 points this week are being picked 97.3 percent of the time by the public, on average.
In confidence point pools especially, the Chargers can serve as a relatively safe pick that can still provide some differentiation, as they are likely not rated near the very top of the confidence point list by other entries in confidence point pools.
WEEK 8 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Atlanta Falcons (at Tennessee Titans)
Point Spread:-2.5
Popularity:58%
Category:Value favorite
Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is not expected to play in Week 8, and Tennessee is preparing to start rookie Will Levis but may also play Malik Willis at QB. That developing situation has pushed Atlanta into the favorite role in this game, as those backup QBs will be facing a defense that currently ranks third in the NFL in total yards allowed.
Atlanta is the least popular pick out of all 16 favorites this week, and the Falcons are noticeably less popular than several of the other teams favored by a field goal or less, putting some marginal relative value on sticking with the favorite.
New York Giants (vs. New York Jets)
Point Spread:+3
Popularity:26%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Giants provide a little upset value playing at home in the stadium they share with the Jets. After a horrific start, the Giants seem to have stabilized things, especially on defense. With the Jets being picked by 74 percent of the public, this pick could make sense in single-week contests that reward a bit more risk taking to fade the crowd.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Unlike last week, we see several solid options for Week 8 survivor picks. Six different teams are favored by between 8.0 and 8.5 points as of Wednesday, which means the choice here could come down to other factors, including pick popularity and future pick planning.
The Chargers are the most popular Week 8 survivor pick right now, based largely on being both available to many players and having less future value than some of the other top considerations this week. However, it might make sense to avoid the Chargers if you want to diversify away from the most popular pick.
Get All Our Week 8 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 8 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 8 picks!
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